Decalogue of the Energy Reform in Mexico 2025. The future of renewable energy in Mexico after the Reform.

From Ontier, we have prepared a Decalogue explaining the Energy Sector Reforms in Mexico, for the full text, click here.

In recent months, companies in the electricity sector have been closely analyzing the new market adjustments in Mexico. After a six-year period in which the development and construction of new generation capacity has been practically stagnant, the recent political and regulatory change has generated expectations in the industry.

From a macroeconomic perspective, it is clear that Mexico requires substantial investment in generation, as well as in transmission and distribution infrastructure. As a country with a strong industrial base and a nearshoring-oriented strategy, it is critical to observe how this model will evolve based on tariff policies driven by the United States. Currently, rising temperatures are causing blackouts and strains on the grid, while demand continues to grow without generation capacity evolving at the same pace. There is, therefore, a significant gap that must be filled, and it is imperative that this expansion be carried out mainly with renewable energies, reducing environmental impact, minimizing greenhouse gas emissions and enabling companies to meet their sustainability commitments.

Based on a preliminary analysis, three key factors have been identified: market need, availability of resources and the existence of capital for investment. However, a favorable energy policy and a regulatory framework that provides legal certainty to investors are essential to generate real momentum in the sector.

Claudia Sheinbaum’s government has shown a more conciliatory stance compared to the previous administration. Several tenders have been announced to strengthen the electricity infrastructure and legal initiatives have been presented that will soon become laws.

From a regulatory perspective, these reforms can be interpreted in two ways. On the one hand, they could represent a return to the previous model, with the preeminence of the CFE, the 54% limit on generation, the prioritization of dispatch by reliability (which requires a strategic selection of nodes to minimize curtailment risks), restrictions on the private sector and a weakening of regulatory bodies. On the other hand, they can also be seen as the consolidation of a new regulatory framework with clear rules, which would allow exploring new business models and opportunities in the sector.

On the optimistic side, some developers have been able to move forward with favorable interconnection studies, in many cases without requiring major reinforcements in the connection infrastructure (however, not all have been as fortunate). Some projects have made considerable progress, having completed system impact studies, processed Social Impact Assessments (SIAs) and Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs), and obtained generation permits from the Energy Regulatory Commission, now the National Energy Commission (Comisión Nacional de Energía, CNE). Those that have taken the greatest risks are likely to be the first to reach the Ready to Build(RTB) stage. However, most developers continue to operate cautiously, conducting pre-feasibility analyses, securing land and requesting indicative studies, while waiting for the regulatory framework to provide the necessary legal certainty to move forward more quickly.

Other positive factors have also been identified in the sector. Projects that have not been operating for years have finally come online or are close to doing so. Power purchase agreement(PPA) prices are highly attractive due to growing demand. In addition, the mergers and acquisitions(M&A) market has begun to reactivate with the purchase and sale of operating wind farms, although in the case of projects under development, this process must wait for developers to move forward with their projects. There has also been an increase in development agreements(DSA) with increasingly ambitious developers and sophisticated development platforms that in most cases have an investment fund behind them. In parallel, financial institutions have begun to show greater interest in project financing, both for development and for refinancing or construction.

In this context of energy sector transformation, law firms play a key role in providing strategic advice and legal certainty to investors. We know that navigating this new environment can be challenging, so we have developed this Decalogue, a clear and practical guide to help you understand the changes and make informed decisions. Our goal is to be an ally in this new stage of the energy sector in Mexico.

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For further information, please contact Lorenzo Hernández, Regina Noriega or Daniel González.